Governor of Alaska

[dolfan]

I haven't been superglued to news this weekend, and I haven't read anything negative about Sarah Palin, but I'm unable to avoid the morning headlines repeating the story about her daughter's pregnancy.

A couple of things:

1. I love how the media forwards its agenda by openly debating whether an item is debatable. "Is covering Bristol Palin's pregnancy going too far?" kind of stuff. Incredible, and they get away with it.

2. I don't have anything against Gov. Palin. As I said Friday, I'm sure she's a fine governor. And, to learn that she's a conservative evangelical? Hey, bonus points. But, look, let's be real. McCain has specifically targeted Hillary voters. How many liberal Democrat women who happen to resent Obama are going to be attracted to McCain because of Sarah Palin? Prediction: zero. If they do, they're not liberal democrat Hillary voters, they're just Hillary voters without a cause. Is that a large enough slice out of Obama's pie to yank victory from the jaws of defeat? No. Now, that doesn't add up to "McCain loses" (although right now, I think he will); all it means is that the tactic is not going to produce the intended result if the goal was to swing Hillary voters over to him. Now, if the goal was to motivate conservatives to vote for him who otherwise wouldn't, maybe he's going to gain some votes. But, I think he would have gained at least that many, plus more than the marginally greater number of Hillary-followers who will vote for him now (they'd probably do so anyway if their hatred of Obama is so high) if he had picked Romney.

3. How would you like to be the boy who is the father of Bristol Palin's unborn baby? 5 months ago, he was in a back seat or bedroom or wherever, trying successfully to make his move on this little gal, and today he's a mud flap on the superhighway toward the presidential election. Behold how great a matter a little fire kindleth.

[DaJudge]

2. I don't have anything against Gov. Palin. As I said Friday, I'm sure she's a fine governor. And, to learn that she's a conservative evangelical? Hey, bonus points. But, look, let's be real. McCain has specifically targeted Hillary voters. How many liberal Democrat women who happen to resent Obama are going to be attracted to McCain because of Sarah Palin? Prediction: zero.

Well there's at least one liberal democrat Hillary voter who is at least considering voting for McCain: Geraldine Ferraro.

[dolfan]

Okay, then. Not zero. Almost 1. j/k

[MacUser]

The obama media could read the tea leaves (ie; flash polls) and see the Palin bump was MASSIVE for McCain and they had to release some opposition research - basically anything.. in attempt to reign it back in some.

When in actuality these public displays of a private family matter are going to educate quickly the character of Sarah Palin for everyone. Obama said he wouldn't want his daughters "burdened" with a mistake. The Palin's are going to get 'em married.

[DaJudge]

I guess my point is, dolfan, if a woman who was the Democratic nominee for VP is even considering voting for McCain, then your statement that Palin's nomination will lure ZERO Hillary voters over, is a bit overstated.

Palin's nomination has several of big pluses.

1. It shores up the evangelical conservative vote.
2. It will draw in the casual Hillary voter (the ones who said, gee, wouldn't it be nice to have a woman in the White House)
3. It took the wind out of the Obama campaigns sails. Her nomination effectively negated Obama's post-convention "bounce" in the polls.

[rjjunior]

Obama said he wouldn't want his daughters "burdened" with a mistake.

Actually, I think he said, "punished with a baby."

[Paully_44]

It took the wind out of the Obama campaigns sails. Her nomination effectively negated Obama's post-convention "bounce" in the polls.

It has definately overshadowed the Democratic convention and anything that was happened there.

[dolfan]

I guess my point is, dolfan, if a woman who was the Democratic nominee for VP is even considering voting for McCain, then your statement that Palin's nomination will lure ZERO Hillary voters over, is a bit overstated.

Palin's nomination has several of big pluses.

1. It shores up the evangelical conservative vote.
2. It will draw in the casual Hillary voter (the ones who said, gee, wouldn't it be nice to have a woman in the White House)
3. It took the wind out of the Obama campaigns sails. Her nomination effectively negated Obama's post-convention "bounce" in the polls.

I'm not so sure, long-term, if those things will hold true, though. And that uncertainty is really a reason why not to pick someone when there are so many others Mitt Romney who would've been home runs in two of the three most likely categories you've listed. I'm still unconvinced that #2 is a winner. First, the number of those casual Hillary voters who would vote for McCain/Palin for that reason are probably not enough in number to justify the pick. That's an awfully big bait for such a small fish, IMO. And, that Ferraro is teetering on McCain is more a reflection of her disdain over Obama and how Hillary was treated than over Palin. She was not exactly glowing over Palin, but she left herself some room to be straight-faced if McCain wins and she gets camera-hungry come the first Wednesday in November to reveal that she voted for him. Since when does anyone listen to Ferraro? Not sure I want her to be the leader of her opposition's cause in 2008 when almost no one cares who she used to be when she couldn't even get her own cause to prevail in 1984 when everyone did care.

As for #3, I think Obama and Biden would sufficiently do that on their own by November. Dukakis had a huge lead in 1988 after the DNC. To this day, Rush Limbaugh calls him "The Loser". Convention poll bounces mean nothing. Debates matter much more. What if Palin fails to deliver then? How much does an October debate debacle actually inflate a rather flat Obama/Biden post-convention balloon? I don't know, either, but I don't want to find out.

I'm with you on #1, but I do wonder how many of those will choose not to vote at all now with the revelations about Palin's daughter's pregnancy. Like it or not (and I know you don't nor do I) people blame parents for their kids' sins. Sometimes that's justified, many times it isn't. If it isn't in this case, the natural inclination of those who do it anyway and decide to sit at home on Election Day may easily offset at least some of the marginal gains from the few #2 types you described.

I can't say 100% that any of these nasty, bad things will happen to the McCain candidacy because of his selection of Palin. But, they were 100% avoidable, and it isn't like he had no better options.

[one love]

where are the polls right now I have not seen?

[Full Quiver]

Actually, I think he said, "punished with a baby."

exactly and thanks for refreshing my memory

[dolfan]

They're different:

Today's Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll says:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 48% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 51%, McCain 45%. This is the highest level of support enjoyed by Obama at any point in Election 2008

That is remarkable; Obama hasn't bested 50% before now. I don't say this is a result of Sarah Palin, though. Would it have been something else if Romney had been the pick? I don't know. Maybe it is a reflection of yesterday's hurricane fears and irrational Katrina-blame-flashbacks.


From Gallup today:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 30 through Sept. 1, finds Barack Obama leading the race for president with his highest share of support to date. Fully half of national registered voters now favor Obama for president, while 42% back John McCain.

Prior to now, no more than 49% of registered voters supported Obama for president in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

From RealClearPolitics metapoll, they show Obama up by 6.4 points over McCain, 49.2 to 42.8.

So, there y'are.