Just an idea of what we're up against

[dolfan]

http://www.zogby.com/50state/

Zogby's polling data indicate that, right now, Obama firmly has 260 electoral votes to McCain's 173. The need-to-win number is 270. 105 votes are too close to call. To think that McCain would win 97 of those votes would be silly, IMO.

All the national polls are useless information. This is the poll that matters. Unless a miracle happens, Obama will be elected.

[KBevangelist]

All the national polls are useless information. This is the poll that matters. Unless a miracle happens, Obama will be elected.

I agree!

KB

[INLOVE]

God help us.

[Tracy]

I thought no one had electoral votes until the actual election. It is all speculation, right?

[pastorables]

What is the track record for this polling? How many times has it been successful at this point in a campaign?

pa

[DaJudge]

http://www.zogby.com/50state/

Zogby's polling data indicate that, right now, Obama firmly has 260 electoral votes to McCain's 173. The need-to-win number is 270. 105 votes are too close to call. To think that McCain would win 97 of those votes would be silly, IMO.

All the national polls are useless information. This is the poll that matters. Unless a miracle happens, Obama will be elected.

IMHO, all polls in this election are as useless as the one that said, "Dewey defeats Truman". There are alot of people who tell pollsters that they'll vote Obama (because it seems the PC thing to do), who, when it gets right down to it, will never pull that lever for him in the polling booth.

[Pastor Gary]

Here's a bit of reality check: there are many people who are expected to vote Democrat because of their party registration, union affiliation, or other given. There are, rightly or wrongly, plenty of those people who are still reluctant to pull the lever for Obama... some because of his race, some because of his positions, some just because.

The fat lady has not even cleared her throat yet.

[Gerald Creasy]

More to the point:

Dolfan....weren't you posting all this doom and gloom stuff about Bushs chances last go around?

[DaJudge]

More to the point:

Dolfan....weren't you posting all this doom and gloom stuff about Bushs chances last go around?

I seem to recall that as well. Dolfan's political predictions, fortunately, usually ain't worth a plug nickel.

[one love]

I think McCain has real good shot!!!! You watch his momentum go through the roof in the next week! Going to get a sign for the yard

[dolfan]

I was glad I was wrong in 2004, and I'll be glad to be wrong in 2008. It is not a done deal, but it is not a situation that lends itself to optimism, either. I've said already that national polls are useless. Electoral polls, and now these mock markets, are better predictors. Not always right, but closer than national polls tend to be.

Sean Hannity regularly cites to Zogby, Rasmussen and RealClearPolitics. RCP's electoral poll is not much more favorable: Obama 238, McCain 185.

I'm not responsible for the polls. But, these major polls tend to be right more often than they tend to be wrong especially where the race is not particularly tight. Even national polls that seem to be cited ad nauseam every 4 years about this time show that the race is simply not that tight. A 6 point spread for Obama is consistent across the major pollsters. Figure in a margin of error of 3 points and that could be a tie or it could be a 9 point spread for Obama, or anywhere in between. It doesn't really tell us much. But, when you look at individual states, the picture gets sharper. And, those same pollsters who produce fairly reliable national polls are very good on electoral polls. They are quite consistent there, too.

You can always discount polls if something particularly noteworthy happens in a campaign. Bush lead Kerry by as many as 14 points in national polls. He didn't win by nearly that much. Rasmussen had the electoral college vote estimated in Bush's favor 2 weeks before the election at 222-190 and was inconclusive. He won 286-252, an almost identical margin.

So, what do we say then? Wait until October to see? Maybe. I watched Sarah Palin's speech tonight and I was inspired by it. I was at our store, and two ol' boys stopped dead in their tracks, popped open their RC cans and watched her every word silently for 10 minutes. My cashier, a not really bright gal but who repeatedly says she hates McCain, said "Now I like her." Palin's got that something, and part of it is the packaging. Good enough for me. (One guy said "She shore is purty.") She attracts people. She'll need to.

Will she have enough to rally Republicans from slumber to excitement in voting for McCain? She might do just that. Lord knows he hasn't done it, and hasn't given anyone a reason to. Obama is his best qualification for my vote. But, the debates will be very important. Palin scored well tonight, but its early and the liberal media is a mad dog about her. We'll see if she holds up and if she holds her own. She's about to be the queen of America or a punch line.

[pastorables]

105 votes are too close to call. To think that McCain would win 97 of those votes would be silly, IMO.

At www.realclearpolitics.com , they have 115 votes as up for grabs. Of those, Michigan is the only state where Obama has a commanding lead. Of the rest, McCain is winning a majority of those states currently (such as OH, FL, and NC), they are tied, or Obama is just barely winning. This give me reason to have optimism.

IMHO, this election still belongs to anybody.

pa

[justsam]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com

Check above for the electoral college map-

What are John McCain's chances (based on current polling):

174 Electoral Votes for McCain-

96 votes needed for presidency

States where McCain is leading and Bush Won in 2004 and 2000-

Ohio 20

Florida 27

Nevada 5

North Carolina 15

Indiana 11

78 total for 252 Electoral Votes

18 Needed for win

States where Obama is leading but Bush won in 2004 and 2000

Colorado (Obama +.04) 9

Virginia (Tied) 13

22 total for 274 electoral votes

The race is far from over yet-

God Bless You- Sam Smith

[dolfan]

I hope y'all are right. If you are, then I volunteer to get smacked in the face with any pie you can cook and safely throw at me.