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Early Exit Polls
Posted: November 4th, 2008, 1:15 pm
by valley
McCain will keep AZ.
To Close in: FL, IN, OH
PN: Obama +15
So says Drudge.
If these are as bad wrong as they were in 04, McCain might actually pull off an upset. He could keep Fl, In, and Oh. Win by a few votes in PN. (Remember, Bush was down by 17 in OH in 04) I still see this as a long shot, but tonight might actually prove to be interesting.
Posted: November 4th, 2008, 1:18 pm
by Full Quiver
Rasmussen says exit polls always favor dems but we know the last two elections proved the exit polls incorrect.
Posted: November 4th, 2008, 1:27 pm
by valley
The secret to these things are the internals, which is why good polls post a margin of error with a confidence rate, which is a bunch of mumbo jumbo that most people could care less about.
The poll we just finished conducting a few days back, which was limited to our area, showed a very close race in a rather red area. We had several problems with our poll. Including over sampling women and college educated voters (This would skew the results more toward Obama). We also under surveyed voters under the age of 35 (Skewing the results toward McCain.)
Internals matter, without this type of information, it is hard to determine exactly how reliable these polls actually are.
Posted: November 4th, 2008, 1:29 pm
by dolfan
Exit polls are about as reliable as internet polls.
Posted: November 4th, 2008, 1:34 pm
by valley
Depends on if the respondents are actually processed in a scientific manner. If you have survey takers just standing outside of random polling places without the proper distribution across the state, the results will be skewed, as in Ohio in 2004.
Posted: November 4th, 2008, 2:08 pm
by valley
McCain: 8
Obama: 3
Warner wins in Virginia
Posted: November 4th, 2008, 2:10 pm
by one love
valley wrote:McCain: 8
Obama: 3
Warner wins in Virginia
Warner is Awful
1st time 2 democratic senators since 1970
Posted: November 4th, 2008, 2:13 pm
by Mike Vande
Voted for McCain & Palin.
Posted: November 4th, 2008, 2:24 pm
by valley
Fox shows W. Virginia going to McCain.
McCain: 13
Obama: 3
Pray for VA!
Posted: November 4th, 2008, 2:27 pm
by deb
Virginia (early polls - 16%)
McCain 55%
Obama 44%
13 electoral points at stake
Posted: November 4th, 2008, 2:33 pm
by valley
Politico: Graham (R) wins in SC
Posted: November 4th, 2008, 2:47 pm
by valley
Delaware goes to Obama.
Posted: November 4th, 2008, 2:52 pm
by Mole_J
South Carolina goes to McCain
Posted: November 4th, 2008, 3:05 pm
by valley
TN and OK go to McCain.
IL, MA, CT, all of those New England (Except NH), and DC go to Obama
Posted: November 4th, 2008, 3:09 pm
by one love
crazy they have said Obama would win VA and now it looks good for McCain but NC is not looking to good right now. He could get the best upset in a long time.
Sad thing is that the media has convinced the average that Obama has been winning everywhere so if McCain does win they will truly claim this election was stolen because the republicans are racist........