Okay, Gary may kill me in about 3.5 seconds for this... but here's the official report:
http://www.penguintek.net/~ubik/jude2stats0309.pdf
My honest opinion: Jude 2 is not dying. (It better not be, I put too much work into it!)
Seriously, though, I'll add my thoughts: I've noticed that any kind of usage stats seem to reflect on human behavior and/or general trends at the time. I used to work for a dial-up ISP (many years ago) and we'd make pretty little graphs of our dial-up utilization. General trends I saw: Peaks were in the evening (after supper time), would decline as it got later, especially around 11PM or so. Bottoms out in the early morning hours, starts to pick back up around 5AM or so, had a few more users during the day (businesses?), then after-school you'd have some more users, and again after supper it'd take off. Spring/summer had fewer users (on average) than fall/winter. Snow and/or ice storms, and you had a SURGE of users (can't go anywhere, might as well get online?) It was kind of interesting to watch.
Anyway...back on topic:
What I see is a small decline around Christmas time -- understandable, as people spend more time with their families, friends, and local retailers, than they spend online. With the economy the way it is, some people may have very well cut back on their Internet (including eliminating it completely -- I have heard of people going back to dial-up purely for economical reasons.) Plus, along the same line, there may be people who are now having to work a second job to make ends meet -- and that cuts into the time they previously used to visit. And, as also mentioned, the social networks may have cut in some. Some people who previously stayed in touch here may be using Facebook for that.
All that said, I do agree, it will go through its peaks and valleys. It's definitely not dying. And maybe we're seeing that small drop 6-10 months out from assembly.
Just my $2.85 (adjusted for taxes and inflation.)