Hurricane 101

[pastorables]

I heard today from good source that Poplarville, MS is taking Gustav seriously. Poplarville is around one hour northeast of New Orleans. A local business owner there told a friend of mine that the town is out of everything one would need during emergency; canned goods, water, batteries, gas, etc...

I am assuming that Katrina is still etched in their minds.

2005 Poplarville, Mississippi (about 75 miles North of New Orleans and Biloxi and very hard hit buy Katrina) ….. Lisa Fairchild, deputy administrator, answers the phone call and we ask her what they need…. She beings crying and rejoicing almost uncontrollably, as does the staff in the background…….they need everything……from band aids to medication…..to food and blankets……no Doctors available…..their lone ambulance was sent to New Orleans……they have been told that they should not expect any help or supplies for at least 30 days…..the whole staff has lived at the hospital since Monday…..most do not have a home to go to….since the area is practically leveled….plus they have ¾ of the hospital full of nursing patients…..and the local school is expecting 3500 refugees on Thursday!.......

pa

[scooter]

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[dolfan]

Get that truck warmed up, Ritchie..... I'm afraid we may have to use it again.

[TW]

This is a bit of over reaction. These supplies should have been gathered prior to the beginning of the Hurricane Season. The prudent course of action for anyone living in a coastal area is to prepare ahead of time so that there is no last minute rush to acquire the basics needed for survival. I grew up in south Florida, so I am well aware of living in an area subject to repeated hurricanes. In the years that I lived in Florida there was no FEMA (established April 1, 1979), or organized state aid, the hurricanes would come and go, you simply picked up the pieces and continued with your life.

At it's present forward speed Gustav is more than a week away from landfall on the Gulf Coast. More than enough time to make preparations without the need for panic. If people insist on living in areas that are prone to a particular type of disaster then they should at least be prepared to deal with that disaster when, not if, it occurs.


TW

[pastorables]

Get that truck warmed up, Ritchie..... I'm afraid we may have to use it again.

I'm ready, but the truck has seen it's last hurrah I'm afraid. Monitoring the situation very closely.

Ritchie

[Full Quiver]

At it's present forward speed Gustav is more than a week away from landfall on the Gulf Coast.

Not according to FEMA and weather reports I have seen. They are saying Tuesday, Sept. 2.

[TW]

The time element that I posted earlier was based upon the information that was available this morning before I went to work. During the day Gustav not only increased in strength but in forward speed as well, at one point reaching a speed of 12 miles per hour (as opposed to the 8 mph this morning). Here is the 11:00 PM advisory from NOAA's National Hurricane Center:

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...CENTER OF GUSTAV MOVING THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...
40 KM...WEST SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE CAYMAN ISLAND. THIS POSITION IS
ALSO ABOUT 55 MILES...85 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND
ABOUT 330 MILES...530 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA
ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND
GUSTAVE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN
CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE
JUVENTUD.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. THE RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION FROM GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...19.5 N...80.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN

At it's present speed it will take 3 days 22 hours 12 minutes to reach New Orleans, still plenty of time to take all prudent precautions.

The bold emphasis (added by me) is the real danger of these storms.


TW

[TW]

Here's a map that shows the probable course and timetable for Gustav.



You will note that they are expecting Gustave to strengthen to a category 4 while it is in open water in the Gulf, and then weaken just prior to land fall. It should be a strong Cat. 3 when it reaches the Gulf Coast.

Gustav is the most present danger, but we should keep an eye on Hanna. To top it all off there is an area just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands that is showing signs of organization, the red circle on this NHC map.



This is the area that generally births the "monster storms."

All in all, a fun weekend!


TW

[soulsearcher]

The prudent course of action for anyone living in a coastal area is to prepare ahead of time so that there is no last minute rush to acquire the basics needed for survival... If people insist on living in areas that are prone to a particular type of disaster then they should at least be prepared to deal with that disaster when, not if, it occurs.

TW

Hurricane 101 Basics for REAL.

[EagerBeaver]

CNN had it on TV that this could potentially be bigger and more catastrophic than Katrina. That would be mind-blowing.

[Full Quiver]

Cat 4 at the moment!!!

[Mole_J]

It looks like the good people of New Orleans are preparing for Hurricane Gustav, by buying guns.

The Gun Shots

I hope everyone will evacuate from this area. Seems like this is going to be a very bad storm.

[TW]

Gustav is in the Gulf over open water, and the water is very warm. Perfect growing conditions for hurricanes.



He is a Cat 3 right now but NOAA and the NHC expect some strengthening today, possibly a Cat 4 by this afternoon.


TW

[oletimer]

Not a weather man but from where it was yesterday and where it is today, I would think that the panhandle or around the Mobile bay area. Gonna be bad any where it hits. God please help.

[Rob]

My Brother lives in Lake Charles and was forced to leave home this morning.