Hurricane 101

[TW]

The NHC wrote:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 312353
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
700 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GUSTAV CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ABOUT
TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH
ISLAND EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY
OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
280 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 260 MILES...415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
GUSTAV SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TONIGHT...AND GUSTAV IS
FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220
MILES...350 KM. DATA FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE AREA COVERED BY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAS EXPANDED...
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF GUSTAV. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA...
AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN
THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...26.9 N...87.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

The rapid forward movement of Gustav has kept it from becoming stronger, and actually weakened it a little.

I like this infrared satellite image of the storm. Some of you are already feeling the effects of Gustav. The next 24 hours are going to be interesting for some of you.




I pray for God's protection over all of you,
TW

[rjc]

I too am praying for God's protection for everyone in this storm's path.

[KBevangelist]

Praying here as well

KB

[TW]

As of 10:00 PM CDT August 31, 2008 the NHC is reporting that Gustav's forward speed is slowing, now down to 17 mph. The central pressure is also dropping, from 957 mb (28.25 inches) at 4:00 PM to 954 mb (28.17). The expected storm surge is 10 -14 feet above normal tide levels, and will occur east of the point of land fall. Rainfall should be heavy with up to 20 inches by Wednesday night in some locations.

If Gustav makes landfall just west of New Orleans I would expect to see NO flood yet again. The levies have always failed, and always will. They are built on silt, not solid ground, when the floods come the silt washes away and the levies collapse Since most of New Orleans is bellow sea level it is prone to flood anyway. As long as they rebuild New Orleans on a glorified sand bar this will happen. I hope that they provided the police and National Guardsmen with boats, they are probably going to need them.


TW

[TW]

Gustav has been downgraded to a Cat 2 hurricane, but it is only 1 mph short of being a Cat 3 again. Gustave remains a serious threat to the northern Gulf Coast.



I read last night where the levies around New Orleans are already leaking, and that the Army Corps of Engineers has completed only 25% of the repair work on the levies from the damage of Katrina. The repairs were not scheduled to be complete until 2011. I also watched Mayor Nagin make a fool of himself again, saying Gustav is "The Storm of the Century," and that it is 900 miles wide.


TW

[Jennifer Smith]

As of 10:00 PM CDT August 31, 2008 the NHC is reporting that Gustav's forward speed is slowing, now down to 17 mph. The central pressure is also dropping, from 957 mb (28.25 inches) at 4:00 PM to 954 mb (28.17). The expected storm surge is 10 -14 feet above normal tide levels, and will occur east of the point of land fall. Rainfall should be heavy with up to 20 inches by Wednesday night in some locations.

If Gustav makes landfall just west of New Orleans I would expect to see NO flood yet again. The levies have always failed, and always will. They are built on silt, not solid ground, when the floods come the silt washes away and the levies collapse Since most of New Orleans is bellow sea level it is prone to flood anyway. As long as they rebuild New Orleans on a glorified sand bar this will happen. I hope that they provided the police and National Guardsmen with boats, they are probably going to need them.


TW

"So, build your house on the Lord Jesus Christ.." God, help them. I hope this isn't as bad as Katrina, but at least they have evacuated, and I hope that people complied with the evacuation. Isn't the East side of the eye of the hurricane usually the hardest hit? That would put New Orleans on the bad side of the hurricane.

[EagerBeaver]

I also watched Mayor Nagin make a fool of himself again, saying Gustav is "The Storm of the Century," and that it is 900 miles wide.

Correction: Nagin said the storm's footprint was 900 miles wide. Which means the outer rain bands, light winds, etc.

He was actually right on target about it being the Storm of the Century...but now New Orleans and most of Louisiana has Cuba to thank for it not being so. Cuba broke the storm up enough to where it didn't regenerate the intensity that it had before. It had no chance of being as bad as Katrina.

I'd rather Nagin make a fool of himself by overstating the problem, evacuating his city and telling everyone to be safe, rather than make sure this happens again:

[TW]

From the reports that I have seen this morning 90 to 95% of the population of New Orleans did evacuate. The 5 to 10% that stayed were told that the police would not arrest them as long as they stayed on their own property, but should they be found away from their property they were going to be arrested.

The northeast quadrant of all tropical storms, including hurricanes, is the strongest area, with the highest winds and storm surge. It does look as if New Orleans will be in this quadrant. Gustav is not as strong as Katrina, or Rita, so hopefully things will not be as bad as they were three years ago.

I still contend that it is a mistake to try to rebuild New Orleans on that spot. How many more billions of taxpayer dollars are we going to throw at the levies in an attempt to do the impossible. Move the city to a spot above sea level!!! Whole cities farther upstream on the Mississippi have been moved to get them off of the flood plain, do the same with New Orleans and quit wasting our tax dollars.


TW

[jinjer]

I agree with TW, MOVE New Orleans!! We shouldn't have to keep paying to keep folks dry under the water!!!!

Jinjer

[TW]

I also watched Mayor Nagin make a fool of himself again, saying Gustav is "The Storm of the Century," and that it is 900 miles wide.

Correction: Nagin said the storm's footprint was 900 miles wide. Which means the outer rain bands, light winds, etc.

He was actually right on target about it being the Storm of the Century...but now New Orleans and most of Louisiana has Cuba to thank for it not being so. Cuba broke the storm up enough to where it didn't regenerate the intensity that it had before. It had no chance of being as bad as Katrina.

I'd rather Nagin make a fool of himself by overstating the problem, evacuating his city and telling everyone to be safe, rather than make sure this happens again:

Chris, I watched the interview with Nagin when he was asked about him saying that gustav was 900 miles wide, as well as the Storm of the Century remark. He said at that time yes, he had made both statements and that he would rather go on TV after the storm and say that he was wrong than have a repeat of Katrina. He was wrong on both counts. On the 900 mile wide ("footprint," I'll give you the benefit of the doubt) the maximum distance attained by tropical storm winds at any time was 260 miles from the center. The storm could have only been 520 wide (assuming that it was concentric, which hurricanes aren't). The "Storm of the Century" statement was just plain stupid. There have been a number of storms that surpassed Gustav in strength.

Cuba had little to do with Gustav failure to become a bigger and more powerful storm. When Gustav passed over the western tip of Cuba it was a Cat 4 and remain a Cat 4 until it was well passed Cuba (as can be seen on this map).



What kept Gustav from strengthening was that it increased it's forward speed to 17 - 18 mph from the 10 - 12 mph that it had been moving. At that kind of rapid movement it could not feed off of the hot water in the Gulf. Hurricanes draw their strength from the hot tropical waters, which is why once they are over land for an extended time they fall apart.


TW

[Jamais Vu]

Wouldnt it cost A LOT to move a whole city to another location? Plus, people should have the right to live where they want.....

.....but i agree we shouldnt have to spend OUR tax dollars....just theirs.

[TW]

New Orleans has a population of around 484,000 people. The Army Corps of Engineers is spending 12.8 billion dollars to repair the levies after Katrina. That works out to about $26,500 for every man, woman and child in New Orleans just to repair the levies this time. It does not include all the previous levy rebuilds, or the actual cost of rebuilding or repairing the damaged buildings in the city, the government relief funds, the cost of temporary housing,etc. That's just for a one time repair. How long are we going to continue to throw money into a project that cannot succeed? Move the City! Eat the one time expense and quit wasting tax dollars trying to preserve a city that was built in one of the dumbest place imaginable.


TW

[KBevangelist]

Eat the one time expense and quit wasting tax dollars trying to preserve a city that was built in one of the dumbest place imaginable.


TW

Isn't that the truth

KB

[Jamais Vu]

How long are we going to continue to throw money into a project that cannot succeed? Move the City! Eat the one time expense and quit wasting tax dollars trying to preserve a city that was built in one of the dumbest place imaginable.


TW

Thats a good question for the congressmen who continue to request earmarks that fund the ACOE almost over 90%. You should know its not about where is the smartest place for people to live......its about *gasp* MONEY! The government is not going to move the city, unless it will make them a lot of money. The people of New Orleans are not going to move unless its going to make them a lot of money. You TW, who seems to be the resident meteorologist at the moment, are not going to drive down to help move the city....because it would cost you a lot of money. And for what? For nothing because people are going to live there either way.

I wasnt disagreeing with you.....its just silly to try and make people move. That is just stupid. Make the people of New Orleans pay for their own rebuilding.

The government has made it a worse place to live by building that gulf outlet.....which i read somewhere scientists believe helped strengthen katrina like %50.

Heck Florida has been rebuilt how many times now??

[Full Quiver]

No wonder the French sold Louisiana for such a good price. I bet they had just experienced a hurricane and said let's sell now.