Bama - Ole Miss

[dolfan]

One of my favorite games every year is Ole Miss. A program that loves its traditions, has turned out many a great player, and one of the teams within the SEC that we can have a friendly rivalry with minus the acrimony. (Btw, I like State, too -- I know, I know -- but I like Ole Miss better.) Beautiful campus. Enthusiastic fans.

I've read about all I can on this game for this week. "On paper", as they say, Alabama should win this game by a touchdown or more. Ole Miss has not lived up to its potential, yet. Houston Nutt is a good, hard-nosed, smash mouth football coach with the capability of changing schemes and pulling off upsets. I don't think these two teams are so far apart that a Bama loss would be a major upset even if technically it would be one at all. I also don't underestimate our own coach, who is a Nutt fan himself. Saban and Nutt are pretty tight comrades as coaching buddies go, from what accounts I've read over the past 5 years. You can't love college football, IMO, and dislike Houston Nutt. You can't know it and not respect his ability. So, I think this game is more of a 2 point game in either direction, consistent with its close scores over recent years.

I'm so scared to say Bama wins this game, just because I have an unease about it. Not to belittle the death of Tony Fein, but these tragedies have a way of bringing a team together. You can't defend against that. Add to it the must-win position of the Rebels this week in terms of the SEC West race (it'd be hard to be 2 games in the hole against undefeated Alabama, LSU and Auburn, and hope to pull out a division championship), the closed practices by Nutt this week inserting something new schematically, and I think Ole Miss gives Bama all it can handle this week.

I think this game will be fairly low scoring (and, I've been about half and half on that in all the games I've predicted this season -- not too good, eh?). But, the defenses are the best parts of these teams, and both offenses are capable of scoring plenty. So, which side yields first? We'll see, I guess.

My prediction: Alabama 21, Ole Miss 19

[teach]

All I have to say is that I hope you are wrong...

I'm not at all sure what to expect from this game!

[Rob]

Boy Dolfan, you sound like Lou Holtz. Here's what I think and please keep in mind that I'm not an SEC fan by any stretch of the imagination. But here my opinion.

First, Ole Miss and LSU are two of the most overrated teams in the country, (but we are not dealing with LSU in this post) that was proved in the USC game. I think Snead is overrated, and Texas is probably glad he is in Miss. I think Alabama's defense is way to strong, must better than USC's. While I like Nutt, he better have several tricks up his sleve, but Saban is another great X&O's coach. I think Bama is the second best team in the country, behind Texas.

In the end I think Bama wins 27-13.

[dolfan]

Until we win another national championship, I'll probably always sound like him, then. And we know HE ain't going to win another one, so at least one of us has a chance!!!

I think our team last year was significantly better than our team this year. Our line of scrimmage was dominant with Andre Smith. We killed opponents in the first quarter. We're not really getting ramped up until the second half now - and that's classic Alabama football. We've always been a better 2nd half program. The problem is that by the time our guys are playing their best ball in a game, the opponent has been close enough that, unless you really open up an industrial sized can, you've allowed them to be too close for too long and you lose one or three.

We allowed Kentucky to gain way too many yards on the ground last week. Ole Miss has a ground game at least as good, and a passing threat (Sneed is capable of lighting it up even if he's not living up to the hype of the pre-season). We've got a rather unstable linebacker rotation right now (not bad, just not as experienced as they could be), and Kareem Jackson is always due to be burned on the deep ball. Plus, just when we think we're all that, somebody steps up and hands it back to us (might I mention a certain team from an extremely clean and strait-laced state in the western US?).

By the way..... I hope you're right!!!!

[dolfan]

Earlier in the week, Bama was favored by 4. The line is now Bama minus 6.5 according to this.

They also say this:

When Alabama played as a road team favorite with 6 days off, in last 24 games in that situation, they are 16-8 straight up, but only 11-13 versus the spread. That's why I think this game is a 2 point game.

Ole Miss is 0-3 straight up when playing as a home dog against an SEC team favored by 3.5 to 6.5 points and that has an 80% or more win percentage on the season. The data doesn't say how far back that goes. But, in the same circumstance, they are 2-1 against the spread. Again, pointing to this as a close, close game. As a home dog in the last 5 years, the Rebs are 1-12.

If I were a betting man ---- and I'm not ---- I'd take Ole Miss and the points.

[Rob]

I tried to tell you Dolfan. Ole Miss is lucky it wasn't 42-3.

[dolfan]

We needed our D today. We had it. Ole Miss defense played spectacularly. We scored about what I thought we would; our D just played better, and Ole Miss never could get anything going at all.

[pastorables]

I tried to tell you Dolfan. Ole Miss is lucky it wasn't 42-3.

Alabama is a good team. Alabama got the win and I applaud them for executing their game plan, but your statement is unfair to a stellar effort by the Ole Miss defense and gives them no kudos at all for a great plan of their own. Your statement about luck seems to echo the AP and other sports writers. Let's give credit to an impressive Ole Miss defensive effort. To hold the #3 team in the land out of the end zone multiple times while being on the field most of the game is outstanding.

We actually have one of the top defenses in the SEC and with any semblance of an offense, today's game would have been much different from a competition standpoint. I don't know where our offense is this year. Coach Nutt gets paid $2.5 million to figure these things out. I hope he can.

[Rob]

PA - If it wasn't for your defense it would have been 42-3. The defense for Ole Miss is what kept the game respectable. On the flip side of that, Snead is the most overrated QB in the country. He proved it again today. That is twice I have watched him, the other against USC, and I have not been impressed. Of course, out of respect for him this time last year he had I think it was 8 TD passes and 8 Int's and turned in on over the last half of the season.

In my opinion Ole Miss is this year's WVU which started ranked real high fell off the charts only to regroup in time for the bowl season.